once more unto the breach: 179-T6
They say not to leave in anger. But it is unclear whether this tisatsar's news is any less angry than quitting in a fit of pique.
Hopefullythe new publication scheme for the Newslettr will be ready within the next 19 days.
If you want to place bets (or give advice in the form of a bet) on the technical details, the books are open at Manifold Markets.
But there has been too much news to wait another tisatsar. So now, presumably for the last time on Substack, the tisatsar’s news.
Roe v. Wade overturned: In a 5.5-3.5 decision[PDF], the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Roe v. Wade. Chief Justice John Roberts was unable to get support for a compromise outcome that would allow 15-week abortion bans without explicitly overturning Roe v. Wade.
The response has been mutedso far. Joe Biden has been demonstrating losing with grace on the topic. Elizabeth Warren did not; issuing a statement calling for a “public health emergency” that appears to have no basis in law or reason.
The ultimate test of public opinion will be at the ballot-box in November.
Shinzo Abe assassinated: tragedy in Japan, as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated by a man with an improvized firearm. The motivation for the attack was not immediately clear.
the War in Ukraine continues: Russia continues to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, albeit slower and more painfully than experts predicted. The best day-by-day coverage the Newslettr is aware of comes from Markos Moulitsasof Daily Kos. For example, note the June 25 and July 8 updates.
the Johnson-Pincher scandal: the always-controversial Boris Johnson has resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The straw that broke the camel’s back: a story that must be called the Johnson-Pincher scandal. Recently, Mr. Johnson appointed one Chris Pincher MP to a government position.
On June 30, Mr. Pincher resigned from his position after having allegedly groped two men at a nightclub while drunk. Mr. Johnson resigned as PM a week later. Up next, a crowded field of at least 10 Conservative MPs will be narrowed down to two before the end of the month. the Newslettr plans to not cover this further until one of them actually wins.
Chaos in Sri Lanka: the government in Sri Lanka has resigned, or at least promised to resign. The cause of the crisis: governmental corruption, fuel shortages, food shortages, and money shortages.
The situation is still so unclearthat rather than run up our incorrect-prediction count, we simply will wait until next tisatsar to report more news. In particular, it is unclear whether the announced resignations will help anything.
Elon Musk Abandons Twitter Purchase: the Newslettr was nearly certain Mr. Musk would buy Twitter, especially given he would only need to put up a fraction of the necessary cash. Pundits were nearly certain he would not, and the stock price reflected that.
Over the weekend, the pundits were proven right. At least for now. the Newslettr still thinks there may be a new deal for Twitter before next Monday.
One thing we do not want to see is drawn-out litigation. However, as all the parties involved seem most interested in maximizing the column-inches used by coverage of the deal, we are resigned to watching several more months of pointless drama.
As far as our second thesis, that the half-a-dozen features Twitter is beta-testing might quickly improve both revenue and the user experience … clearly they are less interested in “moving fast” than they would have been ten years ago. Certainly launching unmentioning will not move the earnings needle, but it is one of the dozen-or-so user-safety features that should be launched anyway.
A Disaster This Big Can’t Be Kept Secret: no public comment at this time.
the Handover at 25: 1 Jul 2022 marked 25 years since sovereignty over Hong Kong was returned to the government of China, with 50 years of “one country two systems” guaranteed by treaty. The BBC has more.
Bongbong Marcos inaugurated: the start of the BBM presidency in the Philippines has been largely uneventful. Rappler has a summary of the first week, ending in the inauspicious note of Mr. Marcos testing positive for COVID.
We are also hoping not to break existing links to newslettr.com URLs.
As a reminder, we use the word tisatsar to refer to a nineteen-day period, often (but not always) overlapping with the divisions of the Bahai calendar.
We are counting John Roberts as a half-vote here.
The much-discussed “leak” of the Dobbs v. Jackson draft decision two months earlier surely has contributed to the muted atmosphere, as well as the fact that most experts expected this outcome six months ago.
Much as Mr. Biden did regarding the situation in Afghanistan … or in relation to the bill identified by its cost. Losing with grace may become the headline of the Biden Presidency. Which … if you are already fated to lose, isn’t a bad choice.
The Japanese newspapers-of-record simply state it was related to the shooter’s hostility towards a religious organization. Off the record, the claim is that the assassin’s mother had gone bankrupt due to donations to Sun Myung Moon’s Unification Church, and Abe (while not a member) was a prominent politician who had provided them institutional support.
as a biographical background, Moulitsas lived through the Salvadorean Civil War of the 1980s, then spent 3 years in the US Army.
One point of opaqueness will be described: some people are claiming the disasterous outcome of the 2021 decision to limit chemical fertilizer use in agriculture is proof of the bankruptcy of the “green movement”. Other people are claiming that the “green movement” doesn’t actually support that, and the real reason for the rule was an inability to pay for foreign fertilizer, due to financial corruption and a decrease in tourism due to COVID.