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"And of course the Russian army isn’t going to use a pontoon bridge to cross between two points in Belarus as part of an invasion of Ukraine."

Welp. I did think the pontoon bridge was evidence for an invasion -it was an exceptionally weird place for Russians to operate in- if weak evidence.

"For a variety of reasons, I gave up hope of convincing people they were wrong in their arguments that Russia had compelling strategic reasons to launch a war of aggression in February. Instead, I am simply planning to point out after the fact that they were wrong."

Well, how did that work out? At this point I had 65% chance of invasion and had already written this piece explaining the strategic justification for it:

https://eharding.substack.com/p/the-case-for-russia-invading-ukraine?s=w

"On the other hand, nocturnal military operations are always difficult and there is no reason for doing one here."

Who's the troll here?

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