US Senate forecast: April 2022
US Senate forecast: April 2022
seven months until November. And as a new feature, The Complaints Department.
This is the first in what will hopefully be a recurring series on the 2022 United States Senate elections.
In brief:
the two most interesting races in the country are in Utah and Nevada.
in Utah, there is a somewhat non-partisan race between Mike Lee and Evan McMullin. the Newslettr does not have any insights here; we plan to sit back and watch.
in Nevada, Catherine Cortez-Masto would be likely to lose to a generic Republican. However, Adam Laxalt is not a generic Republican. the Newslettr may do a write-up on this race later this year.
the race most likely to be surprising is that in Washington. Patty Murray could lose to either a Democrat, a Republican, or an independent candidate.
the Newslettr has one challenge: we would like to see a last-minute entry into the race against Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut.
but first: the Week’s News … correction, due to the wide variety of complaints we have received, we are running The Complaints Department today.
and now, The Complaints Department:
Publishing delays: a complaint from a person we asked to be annoying:
Dear Sirs: I am unhappy with the current 8-day publication cadence for the Week’s News. I am an old-fashioned man, and I like my weeks with seven days in them.
CNN peddling smut: The screen-grab tells the tale:
the Newslettr is outraged by this coverage. These are private communications, and there is no noteworthy news about them at this time. CNN is desperate for attention, and feels shameful re-treads of non-stories from the Trump administration is what the front page calls for? For shame, CNN, for shame.
no news from Twitter: the Newslettr apologizes. Our correspondent Alan Lee was convinced that some secret news would be announced by Twitter this week. No such news was announced.
the Newslettr may need to go on a fact-finding mission to San Francisco to investigate the situation on the ground.
NFL nonsense: the Newslettr would like to apologize for the NFL draft being a three-day televised event. Our advice is simply: don’t watch it.
Northeast
(no race: Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware)
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan faces a yet-to-be-determined Republican. This race will be competitive.
Vermont: It is nearly certain that Peter Welch will win election to the open seat.
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (the incumbent Democrat) is favored to win re-election, but with a strong candidate that could change.
New York: It is nearly certain that Chuck Schumer will win re-election.
Pennsylvania: with two competitive primaries, there is no forecast.
Maryland: It is nearly certain that Chris Van Hollen will win re-election.
South
(no race: Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Mississippi)
North Carolina: with two competitive primaries, there is no forecast.
South Carolina: It is nearly certain that Tim Scott will win re-election.
Georgia: Raphael Warnock faces a yet-to-be-determined Republican. This race will be competitive.
Florida: It is nearly certain that Marco Rubio will win re-election.
Alabama: While both parties have competitive primaries, it is nearly certain that the winner of the Republican primary will win election to the open seat.
Kentucky: It is nearly certain that Rand Paul will win re-election.
Arkansas: It is nearly certain that John Boozman will win re-election.
Louisiana: It is quite likely that John Kennedy will win re-election. (note: due to the long-standing use of the “top 2” or “jungle” primary, Louisiana elections are more volatile than those in other states.)
Oklahoma: It is nearly certain that James Lankford will win re-election.
Oklahoma (special): with two competitive primaries, there is no forecast.
Midwest
(no race: Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska)
Ohio: Sherrod Brown faces a yet-to-be-determined Republican. This race will be competitive.
Indiana: It is nearly certain that Todd Young will win re-election.
Illinois: It is nearly certain that Tammy Duckworth will win re-election.
Iowa: It is most likely that Charles Grassley will win re-election.
Wisconsin: Ron Johnson faces a yet-to-be-determined Democrat. This race will be competitive.
South Dakota: It is nearly certain that John Thune will win re-election.
North Dakota: It is nearly certain that John Hoeven will win re-election.
Kansas: It is nearly certain that Jerry Moran will win re-election.
West
(no race: Wyoming, Montana, New Mexico, Texas)
Colorado: Michael Bennet faces a yet-to-be-determined Republican. This race will be competitive.
Utah: Mike Lee will be facing Evan McMullin. the Newslettr is unable to assess the race at this time.
Idaho: It is nearly certain that Mike Crapo will win re-election.
Washington: Patty Murray is the incumbent. It is unclear what opposition she will be facing.
Oregon: It is nearly certain that Ron Wyden will win re-election.
California: It is nearly certain that Alex Padilla will win re-election.
Nevada: Catherine Cortez-Masto will be facing Adam Laxalt. the Newslettr is unable to assess the race at this time.
Hawaii: It is nearly certain that Brian Schatz will win re-election.
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski is the incumbent. the Newslettr expects she will win. However, the new “top-4 primary” rules are fairly unpredictable.