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Haiti, Fetterman, and engagement bias

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Haiti, Fetterman, and engagement bias

perhaps "this position gets engagement on Twitter" is evidence against that position

Alex Power
Oct 26, 2022
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Haiti, Fetterman, and engagement bias

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The tweets below are all “popular” in the sense they have a lot of engagement. Many of them are also wrong in some way or another.

Being wrong tends to be good for encouraging engagement. People will shout their objections and retorts. And if 99% of the public disagrees with you, that may only mean the 1% are more vocal in support to compensate, while the 99% need not bother with rhetorical pugilism.

A naive read of Twitter might suggest the public agrees with these thoughts. More likely than not, only a small percentage of the people who use Twitter do so. Beware the engagement bias.

News from Haiti

By most accounts, the situation in Haiti is dire and continues to become more dire. The government (run by unelected strongman

1
Ariel Henry) has minimal support in the country. There is no national army (probably
2
), and the police are overpowered or working with gangs. Fuel shortages continue, as a militant gang blockades
3
the largest fuel depot in the country. Businesses and hospitals are shut down. And now a cholera epidemic has started.

However, if you do a search on Twitter for «Haiti», you will get a very different picture. Apparently, the only people who care about Haiti on Twitter are …

Twitter avatar for @BlackBernieBabe
Monica 🎅🏾🎄 @BlackBernieBabe
Russia invading Ukraine is bad but US invading Haiti is great. I wonder what the difference is? I cant qwhite but my finger on it.
8:53 PM ∙ Oct 18, 2022
4,152Likes1,066Retweets
Twitter avatar for @wallacemick
Mick Wallace @wallacemick
Thousands of #Haitians have protested against the #US installed Regime - Haiti needs an end to Foreign interference, not more foreign boots on the ground. We said we cared about Sovereignty when Russia invaded Ukraine - Does Sovereignty only matter when it suits US Imperialism..?
3:33 PM ∙ Oct 21, 2022
9,854Likes4,392Retweets
Twitter avatar for @grosmorne29
JPierre @grosmorne29
When I said that none of the Black nations are standing up for Haiti…..look at how excitedly representatives from Gabon, Ghana, Kenya voted with their masters against Haiti
3:52 PM ∙ Oct 21, 2022
2,495Likes878Retweets
Twitter avatar for @ajamubaraka
Ajamu Baraka @ajamubaraka
The invasion of Haiti means that scores of Haitian people are going to die. The people of Haiti reject intervention but the racist, arrogant white supremacist colonialists ignore the people because they know better what the people need then the people:
bit.lyBiden’s Former Haitian Envoy Slams White House Plan for Armed Intervention“We’re going to have a civil uprising in Haiti similar to 1915,” said former Ambassador Dan Foote.
9:24 PM ∙ Oct 21, 2022
671Likes395Retweets

Let’s not mince words: these are anti-American activists. Many are “tankies” or openly racist. They ignore the facts when the facts don’t suit them. They are, quite simply, wrong. Yet, because there is no appetite for “maybe we should do something about the situation in Haiti” posts, this is what the algorithm says are the most popular recent posts on the topic.

From the humanitarian perspective, it is fortunate that the “deep state” does not need support on Twitter. It is a safe bet that the American electorate will continue to not care what happens in Haiti.

The Fetterman-Oz Debate

In most situations, Mehmet Oz would have been the clear loser of the Pennsylvania Senate debate. The television personality and snake-oil salesman

4
gave a sound-bite that only an opposition researcher could love:

Twitter avatar for @patdennis
Pat Dennis @patdennis
Holy shit: Oz says his abortion position: should be between "a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders" #PASenDebate
12:29 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
11,842Likes5,042Retweets

However, his opponent, Democrat John Fetterman, was the real loser. Mr. Fetterman had a stroke in June, and there have been continuing concerns about his health. The debate … did not ameliorate those concerns.

Twitter avatar for @greg_price11
Greg Price @greg_price11
Fetterman is asked about previously saying he wanted to eliminate fracking: "I support fracking and I don't I support fracking and I stand and I do support fracking."
12:33 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
2,684Likes817Retweets
Twitter avatar for @ClayTravis
Clay Travis @ClayTravis
John Fetterman can’t speak. This is disqualifying. Just watch. Answers like this are happening over and over again:
12:23 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
4,400Likes930Retweets
Twitter avatar for @JoeNBC
Joe Scarborough @JoeNBC
John Fetterman’s ability to communicate is seriously impaired. Pennsylvania voters will be talking about this obvious fact even if many in the media will not.
12:34 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
3,500Likes668Retweets

Democrats have two responses: denial, and denial. Denial that there is a problem with his health, or denial that the problem with his health should be considered by voters.

Twitter avatar for @OccupyDemocrats
Occupy Democrats @OccupyDemocrats
John Fetterman is CRUSHING Trumper Dr. Oz right now!💙💙💙
12:48 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
7,231Likes1,079Retweets
Twitter avatar for @joncoopertweets
Jon Cooper @joncoopertweets
DAMN. Even after a stroke, Fetterman is DESTROYING Dr Oz.
12:49 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
11,224Likes1,353Retweets
Twitter avatar for @PhilipWegmann
Philip Melanchthon Wegmann @PhilipWegmann
Fetterman Campaign spokesman "for a guy who's just been in the hospital months ago, he took it to Dr. Oz pretty fucking hard tonight."
1:26 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
681Likes66Retweets

Twitter avatar for @ConnieSchultz
Connie Schultz @ConnieSchultz
My God, the blue-check people here mocking John Fetterman during this debate, as if they are immune from the randomness of illness and infirmity. Time catches up with everyone, no exceptions. Few would have his courage to recover so publicly.
12:34 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
12,463Likes1,759Retweets
Twitter avatar for @PatCunnane
Pat Cunnane @PatCunnane
Put the analysis to the side for a second: What John Fetterman is doing right now in the midst of his recovery - so publicly, on the same stage as a smirking TV doctor - is remarkably brave. I’m thankful for him. #PASenateDebate
12:40 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
2,420Likes481Retweets
Twitter avatar for @JohnathanPerk
J. Spencer (him) @JohnathanPerk
This is wild. The #Fetterman debate is making me think about disability equity in a different way. The fact that response periods are strictly timed, for example seems relatively ableist in the realm of physical speech performance delays and subtitles/captions.
12:52 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
209Likes50Retweets

If you are talking about the “bravery” of your candidate for doing one of the staple activities of a campaign, you are losing. And the “ableist” claims … it is hopefully the beginning of the end of the Carthage paradigm. Fifty years ago, Roman Hruska, a conservative Republican, was mocked for suggesting that “mediocre” people should be represented on the Supreme Court. Now it is liberals who are suggesting that expecting basic competence is an unreasonable demand.

And a anklenote

the footnotes are still down further, but this is close to the feet. we’ll call it an ankle note.

Large portions of the Republican Party still appear to be constitutionally incapable of honesty. Even when the facts are squarely on their side, they make up new lies:

Twitter avatar for @StephenM
Stephen Miller @StephenM
Just so we are all clear: that was Fetterman WITH weeks of prep and specialized computer assistance throughout. So what you just saw is the very, very best Fetterman can do. Which is terrifying.
1:00 AM ∙ Oct 26, 2022
3,560Likes944Retweets

“Specialized computer assistance” means closed-captioning. Which is a reasonable accommodation, but one that the Oz campaign and enablers like Trump administration veteran Stephen Miller went to great lengths to obfuscate and attack.

1

Ariel Henry doesn’t describe himself as a dictator, but as he seized power following the death of his predecessor and has no electoral mandate, the term “president” also feels inappropriate. Strongman is a “neutral” term for the situation. Neutral, with the caveat that pro-dictator voice Curtis Yarvin is very willing to use the term.

2

Despite many contemporaneous sources claiming that Haiti has no army, in 2017 it was reported that a new army was being established (ref. BBC). According to news reports in 2021, the army only had around 500 troops at that time. (Turkish state media, via the Wall Street Journal and the United Nations)

3

The fuel blockade is not new; the news from almost exactly a year ago describes almost the same blockade.

4

It is beyond dispute that many of the medical remedies promoted on The Dr. Oz Show are of such dubious efficacy that the term “snake-oil” is appropriate.

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