Occasionally.

and now, the week’s tisatsar’s1 past few months’ news.

Some Guy from Long Island: Name recognition is everything in politics. And of the 435 US House members, only one2 has more name recognition than George Santos. Despite this publicity, Santos received just one campaign donation in 2023Q1.

Some Other Guy from Long Island: Donald Trump was finally indicted for something. The charges seem “trumped-up” to me. They are, roughly, “making an accounting error as part of committing a felony elsewhere”. Except that second felony, “campaign finance violations”, is something he hasn’t been charged with.

Balloon Narrative: Remember that month where everybody was convinced that a random weather balloon was a secret Chinese spying program? ( ref. CBS ) I certainly didn’t, until I checked my notes. In short: it was always a weather balloon, but the Democrats, the Republicans, and the Media3 wanted to pretend otherwise. So they did.

Confidential Information Narrative: Remember that month where every national politician was discovered to have “classified documents” stored incorrectly? I certainly didn’t, until I checked my notes. Trump, Biden, Pence4 and others were involved. People pretended like it was a big deal, until we moved on.

More recently, a leak of various “Top Secret” documents on Discord has gotten attention. We aren’t looking at them directly5, but have heard that the documents are largely mundane world-affairs reporting, similar to that found in most newspapers.

Musk Madness: I have commented on multiple occasions that it seems like Elon Musk is deliberately6 destroying Twitter. Nothing that has happened in the last few months suggest otherwise. Recently, Twitter disabled the ability for Substack to have Twitter embeds, which will decrease our coverage of that site further.

Super-Villain Narrative: If you asked an 8-year old the worst thing a political candidate could do, “destroy Disney World and replace it with a prison” might be the response. Yet, for some reason, that seems to be Ron DeSantis’s fixation. Of course, he isn’t going to actually do that, and people are likely to forget about this before the 2024 primaries start.

This should disprove any narrative about DeSantis being a unique political genius. But his campaign was never based on that, it was based on “being the only GOP option other than Trump”. Which, he still7 is.

And Finally, a New Thunderdome: Substack has launched its Twitter competitor, Notes.

and finally: 2023 Chess Championship - the world chess championship is half done. There is a certain lack of excitement due to the absence of the current world champion, Magnus Carlsen. However, the matches have been much more exciting, with five decisive results out of seven.

lichess.org is running “Thematic World Championship Arena” tournaments, based on positions from the matches, such as this one for Game 7.

The fates have decreed otherwise. There were too many news stories in the past tisatsar that justify mandatory2 coverage3 . (( and we apologize4 for the late distribution5; one news story (the England-France match in the World Cup) has delayed publication from its normal time ))

If my divinations6 are correct, the next two editions are to be “year in review” and “mundane occurrences”, and the last edition in this format will come out on-or-around the last day of February7.

and now, limited to those news stories that justify mandatory coverage, some of the Tisatsar’s News:

and now, a house ad involving content from OpenAI ChatGPT, summarizing the rest of this message somewhat accurately:

This edition of the Tisatsar Newslettr covers several news stories that the author believes are important and warrant mandatory coverage. These include President Joe Biden's recommendation to overhaul the presidential nominating calendar, the death of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, the end of the jumbo jet era, and the result of the England-France match in the World Cup. The author also provides a brief overview of the history and significance of the Iowa caucuses.

The End of the Caucuses?: from the Des Moines Register on December 2:

WASHINGTON, D.C. — President Joe Biden is recommending a massive overhaul of the presidential nominating calendar, calling for South Carolina to replace Iowa in the leadoff position and elevate Michigan and Georgia into the mix.

Biden has proposed that South Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Georgia and Michigan make up the early voting window.

"Our party should no longer allow caucuses as part of our nominating process," Biden said in a letter dated Dec. 1 to the committee. "We must ensure that voters of color have a voice in choosing our nominee much earlier in the process and throughout the entire early window."

For the history of the caucuses, and the logistical and procedural issues that mean even many Iowa Democrats are happy to see the caucuses go, you can read Lyz Lenz’s background post.

Men Yell at Me

RIP Iowa Caucuses

This week’s newsletter is about the history and the legacy of the Iowa caucuses. For the story, I spoke with Julián Castro. Paid subscribers can listen to the whole interview below. Iowa became the first in the nation in the presidential nominating process entirely by accident. But last week, that status was quite purposefully taken away…

Read more

3 years ago · 58 likes · 44 comments · lyz

There is one protocol issue we must note: it isn’t entirely up to Joe Biden and the DNC when the Iowa Democrats hold caucuses. They are bound by Iowa law to do so by the end of February, and there is currently no option to select delegates in the June primary.

Iowa Republicans would have to approve a change … and both state and federal Republicans appear committed to maintaining the Iowa caucuses as first-in-the-nation in 2024. Historically, the parties have caucused on the same night, largely to ensure people don’t try to attend both caucuses. Clearly something will have to give.

the Tisatsar Newslettr awaits.

Death of Jiang Zemin: Former paramount leader8 of China Jiang Zemin died9 on November 30 at the age of 96.

Our immediate response to the news: "a competent bureaucrat" is the headline.  Jiang’s job was to not mess up what Deng accomplished, and he didn't. Time will tell whether his successors will be as successful.

Under the Chinese system, if Jiang did have opinions about his successors, he kept them to himself.

End of the Jumbo Jet Era: The last (cargo) Boeing 747 rolled off the production lines. With the last A380 being produced last year, now both double-decker commercial airliners are no longer in production.

With the increased abilities of two-engine jets, the larger four-engine jets have faded from popularity. In the 1970s, trans-oceanic routes generally required three or four-engine jets to ensure safety. But with extended ETOPS10 the need for larger planes on longer routes has disappeared.

It’s Not Going Home: A World Cup filled with upsets11 and excitement has seen a result in the England-France match that was not so much of an upset. With a France 2-1 England result, England are now on 56 years12 and counting since their singular victory in the 1966 World Cup.

That sounds like an opportune time for yet another change in format for the Newslettr. The 19-day cadence for “news summary” style posts has worn out its welcome. It is too rare for “every day I’m hustlin’ ”, and too common for “a welcome surprise”.

And, in any event, I would like to stop reading the news, much less writing about it.

More posts will happen here … when they are ready. Substack is a terrible medium for half-finished thoughts, which is where various drafts are at right now.

If you have thoughts, you know how to email me. But now, once more, the Tisatsar’s News:

FTX gone: Crypto marketplace FTX has been everywhere in the past year, from Super Bowl commercials to Miami stadiums to the Magnus Carlsen chess tour. Now, it is in bankruptcy court.

There seem to be two reasons for the collapse. First, the “FTT” token run by FTX collapsed1 in value. Second, customer deposits were spent by SBF in a variety of fraudulent ways. For more:

Whitespace

The FTX collapse: the latest revelations (part three)

A week ago, I summarized what was known about the sudden collapse of FTX. To pin it in time a bit, Binance had just backed out of their letter of intent to acquire the exchange. Needless to say, these things move incredibly quickly. More has happened in the week since, and we also have a lot more insight into what Sam Bankman-Fried…

Read more

3 years ago · 20 likes · 2 comments · Molly White

Twitter explodes: Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter has not been without drama. Layoffs, firings, and resignations have impacted every part of the business. Elon’s inability to listen to feedback led to a day of nonsense across the platform regarding “blue-check” parody accounts.

Perhaps it is a feature rather than a bug that Mr. Musk is encouraging more fake information on Twitter. Perhaps the ham-fisted rollout is a way to make later actions seem more competent. Or maybe Mr. Musk simply thought that turkeys could fly.

Swifties Gone Wild: Lots of outrage at Ticketmaster regarding sales for the upcoming Taylor Swift concert. Many of these critiques suffer from a lack of industry knowledge, others from a lack of basic economics2.

To start with: the service Ticketmaster provides is largely to have people get angry at Ticketmaster3, rather than at the musician involved. And there is simply no way to let 5 million Swift fans each buy one of a million tickets while keeping the tickets cheap. It is a recipe for disaster.

People claim it is “evil scalpers”, but if you got lucky and bought a $400 ticket you can flip for $3000, they probably would be doing so as well.

Not So Mighty: “Browser in the Cloud” app Mighty shut down pivoted to a completely different business last week. The startup was most notable for being relentlessly promoted by Paul Graham on Twitter. If it was a good idea, it wouldn’t have needed the relentless promotion …

A Farewell to Intercalary Seconds: 1400 years ago, the Prophet Muhammed4 proclaimed a ban of intercalary months. By extension, we consider that this should also ban the “leap seconds” that have occurred over the past 50 years. Fortunately, those will soon be a thing of the past.

Midterms — where’s the kaboom: Across much of America, the midterm elections were not explosive. The most remarkable part about the election was how indecisive the result is. Legitimate doubt remained about control of the Senate through Friday, and of the House through the next Tuesday. However, the election for Speaker of the House in January may be explosive …

Student loans may or may not be exploding: The Biden partial “student loan forgiveness” program has been paused nationwide by a Texas judge. Until the inevitable Supreme Court ruling happens, every news story on the topic is now just prelude.

RIP Gallagher: The comedian, most famous for hitting watermelons with a sledgehammer on stage, dead at 76.

Russian rockets: According to preliminary reports, a recent Russian rocket barrage against Ukraine accidentally struck a grain silo in Poland. Or, a Ukrainian anti-rocket missile accidentally struck a grain silo in Poland. Regardless, there certainly was an explosion in Poland, accidentally, in an event related to the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine.

Trudeau faux pas: The CNN headline says it: “Canada’s Trudeau deletes tweet falsely claiming Iran has sentenced 15,000 protesters to death”. It is not immediately obvious whether he knew it was untrue, or not. Both possibilities lead to rat-holes best left unexplored.

COP27 worse than useless: This year, COP27 appears to have done nothing about preventing climate change going forward, but they may have made some progress on a climate indulgences fund5. Much like the US Congress is criticized for doing, they appear to have had a 3AM vote on text not distributed to the press beforehand.

Theoretically, next year they could agree on topics such as “the world needs to decrease oil6 consumption”. I doubt they will get that far that quickly. In the meantime, you should expect the amount of bad-faith and inaccurate “this hurricane was caused by global warming” takes to increase. Also, rich countries can now say "we are paying a fund; we don't need to worry" and poor countries can say "we agreed it's their fault; we don't need to worry".

In short, this agreement looks significantly worse than “no agreement at all”. I could talk more about the failings of COP, but my criticisms from last year still hold:

Two More Years

Donald Trump, in an effort to remain the center of attention, has announced another presidential run. While it is not certain that Ron DeSantis would beat him in the primary, we consider that the most likely option.

Separately, we continue to hope for a “non-traditional” candidate who is more serious about governance than Andrew Yang was. While it is easy to promote a hypothetical candidate, finding a real candidate (who actually wants to run for president) is much more difficult.

Our stop-gap hypothetical candidate: Sheryl Sandberg (as a Democrat7). She is well-connected, has a national reputation, is no longer employed at Facebook, and is supposedly still interested in politics. Other than “running for President is awful and she probably won’t be interested”, why not?8

Perhaps that is fake news. Perhaps the war is not over. But the Ben Collins-esque “shout down anyone who dares speak against the liberal consensus” approach to Twitter moderation is surely dead.

Other fronts look equally grim. But now, the Tisatsar’s News:

Fake Climate Conference: next Monday, the two-week long COP27 conference is scheduled to begin. Tens of thousands of government apparatchiks will gather in Sharm-el-Sheikh. They will accomplish nothing, but talk a lot about how the effort involved in the junket demonstrates their commitment to fighting climate change.

Why is the conference so useless? Specifically, after 26 years, why haven’t they even taken the simple step of setting atmospheric CO2 concentration targets? Our theories:

• It is possible they simply can’t agree on a target. Targeting a 610ppm steady-state CO2 concentration may be too little to be politically tenable in some countries, but too dramatic an effort for others. The much-maligned (and correctly maligned) “degrees of warming” estimates are much harder to measure and predict, thus making it easier for everyone to pretend they are agreeing when they have not actually agreed on anything.

• It is possible that they simply haven’t considered such a thing. If you want incompetence, use a large committee, and it is difficult to imagine a larger committee than these conferences.

• It is also possible that the conference is “fake” in the sense that it isn’t actually trying to combat climate change directly. Rather, it is merely trying to keep a bunch of corrupt political apparatchiks in line with the narrative that climate change is a problem and they are solving it. In that sense, “doing nothing” is the best option available.

Fake Bicycle Races: On 30 October 2022, Jonas Vingegaard “won” the Singapore Criterium race. According to the Straits Times, “With two laps to go, a group comprising Vingegaard, Froome, Nibali, Simon Geschke and Enric Mas pushed ahead. The Jumbo-Visma rider pulled away from the leading pack with 400m to go and went on to win the race, raising both his arms in celebration.”

One detail that was omitted from the mainstream press coverage: the results of the race were pre-determined. Canadian Cycling magazine explains:

The “exhibition race,” as it is known, is similar to the post-Tour crits held in Belgium and Holland. In those races, the winners of the various classifications and some other well-known riders, do laps for thousands of fans where the winners have already been decided before the race even starts. The riders, with their tired and weary TdF legs, do their best to put on a show, and it’s almost always one of the fan favourites who takes the “victory.”

Fake Lockdowns and Fake Re-openings: After several years of COVID shutdowns, Shanghai Disneyland recently re-opened, and was immediately locked down. According to initial reports, people were locked-down and trapped inside the theme park (ref: BBC).

Later reports clarified that “trapped” may have been a bit of an overstatement. “Required to take a COVID test upon departure” would be more accurate. CBS reports that everybody had left the park by 8:30PM of the day of the lockdown.

Fake Relevance: The CNN headline should demonstrate the complete irrelevance of their coverage without any further discussion: “Oath Keepers spent over $400 at post-US Capitol riot feast at the Olive Garden, prosecutors say”.

Fake Firings: There has been a lot of fake news surrounding the operating business known as Twitter. Much of it is extremely unpleasant in some way or another. But the “firings” of Rahul Ligma and Daniel Johnson were more humorous. Gossip rag TMZ was among the sources pointing out that a few overeager journalists were duped. And the two performance artists certainly knew their audience: whenever there is a dick joke in the news relating to Mr. Musk, he will tweet about it:

Fake Nostalgia: In a survey conducted by PRRI (the Public Religion Research Institute), 49% of Americans say that American culture and life has changed for the worse since the 1950s.

The problem with that statement is that virtually none of these people remember the 1950s. You would have to be an octogenarian to have an opinion based on personal experience, and even then the ravages of old-age would color ones’ thinking. What they have as “recollection” may have no correlation with the actual 1950s.

In addition, it is a statement designed to be misinterpreted. What changes are making culture worse? Presumbly, the PRRI interpretation is that the decline of religion is what has made society worse. Liberals will look at the data and suggest that many of the conservatives want to go back to before the Civil Rights era.

Here at the Tisatsar Newslettr, we wonder how many of those people actually want a world without computers and smartphones, as opposed to those who simply forgot those technologies weren't around seventy years ago.

Fake Communication: Please take note of the content of the Git repository with checksum 772cb2ce57c1e45b2494ae96c7956267cc7034. As always, any instances of the digit one cannot say over the radio1 have been removed. Whether or not this checksum conveys any information remains an open question.

Fake Debate Coverage: additional commentary on the dubious coverage of the situation in Haiti and the Oz-Fetterman debate can be found in our “Hot Takes” section:

Fake Movies: At some point in time, it would have been unremarkable for a live-action film to be fictional, even if it did not feature comic-book characters. But today, it seems you need a disclaimer in order to not mislead people.

A Fake News Ecosystem

The fake-news headline has to be the coverage and responses of the Paul Pelosi attack from last weekend. Many of the “facts” came from straight-up bullshit vendors like this:

Let’s be clear: these guys are writing pure fiction. They are lying. But there is neither a law nor a policy against lying on Twitter. And the pipeline of laundering lies to liars like Dinesh D’Souza (note tweet) is well-trod.

On the other hand, sources such as broadcast television stations didn’t do much better. A KTVU (FOX affiliate) news story originally was headlined “Alleged Pelosi intruder found in underwear when police arrived” before it was corrected to … not claim that. Now, the new gossip is that DePape may overstayed a visa. Who can say what tomorrow will bring.

And the attackers’ motivation? The efforts by the liberal media to spin this into “stochatic terrorism” assume far too much. Michael Shellenberger is no friend of the Newslettr, but he likely hits the nail on the head here:

Certain of the facts in that article may also be inaccurate. In a world full of fake news, who can tell what is real?

Much like other computer language models, the most egregious flaw of OpenAI is its tendency to give confident answers to questions that are nonsensical1. However, when you ask it for fiction, it tends to give a passable response.

It does seem to follow stated directions. But davinci is still limited in its ability to help write the Tisatsar Newslettr. And, due to an unfortunate gardening accident and a heavier-than-usual travel schedule, our ability to publish the Tisatsar Newslettr has been delayed.

But now, the Tisatsar’s News.

Silly Season on the Airwaves: October in America means it is political ad season. Here in central Iowa, the top ad by frequency is currently this one, which appears to be titled “Cindy Axne Raised Your Taxes From France”.

The optics of the specific vote aren’t terribly interesting. But the broader question of remote voting in Congress is still an open one politically. It was permitted as something of an emergency measure during COVID, and is still permitted. However, some people (mostly Republicans) don’t like it.

Our take: It is a burden for representatives to be in Washington DC the entire year and still represent people in their districts. The solution is to allow “remote voting” — but only from the State Capitol building or a government building in their district. Bring on the Survivor-style confessionals on Tiktok.

No Justice for Alex Jones: A Connecticut court has found Alex Jones liable for over $900 million in damages (ref: BBC) related to a series of statements he made related to the Sandy Hook school shooting of 2012.

There are extenuating reasons why the judgment is so unusually large. Mr. Jones has demonstrated extreme contempt of court throughout the proceedings. His speech is thoroughly odious and unpopular. Yet the extraordinary dollar value of the verdict is not justice.

An Eternal Morass: At the Supreme Court, discussion about copyright of material from the 1980s. (ref: NPR)

Society appears to be trending in a direction where copyright is maximalist, permanent, and litigable for decades. Hopefully we can avoid a future where every simple melody will be under copyright.

More British Politics: We asked davinci to summarize Reuters' take on the continuing drama in the British government:

The article discusses British Prime Minister Liz Truss's firing of her finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng and scrapping of parts of their unpopular economic package. Truss is under pressure from financial markets and her own party to reverse her tax cuts. Kwarteng becomes Britain's shortest serving finance minister. Truss's own position is now in jeopardy.

The Light Entertainment War: Google is out with a series of videos relating to various security incidents over the past 10-15 years. As davinci can’t watch videos yet, you will have to watch it yourself.

I Ain’t Marching Anymore

a Letter from the Editor

My commitment to a regular news summary continues to falter.

There is a difference between journalism and advocacy. Advocacy needs to occur quickly, or else it will have no possibility of making an impact. Journalism, especially second-hand2 journalism, need not be done in the moment.

And on the major issues of the day, I am past the point of wanting to perform (or even witness) advocacy.

• When looking at the Ukraine situation, there is nothing that I can3 do, and I am starting to be of the opinion that the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the conflict is not only inevitable4, but a good thing. Important note: tactical weapons (against a military target, and creating a clear no-mans-land for a ceasefire line) are very different5 from an all-out attack on Kiev. The latter would come with a 50-50 chance of the end of the world as we know it, and must be avoided at all costs.

• On climate change, the main problem is the limitations of current battery technology. The secondary problem is government officials who are incapable of determining whether their actions will help or hurt efforts to solve the issue. Once those are considered, the various frictions to solar deployments etc. are more of a good thing than a bad.

• On social issues, it is clear that nobody wants my opinion, and sharing it wouldn’t help anyway. After decades of trench warfare have caused heated debates but little change, I expect the pendulum to swing chaotically over the coming decade.

• If Elon Musk or any of the other principles in the Twitter drama want me to spend any more of my time watching that soap opera, my rate is $1350 per hour. For most people, that would be a “f*** you” price quote, but I assume Elon can afford it.

One of the many potentialities6 of the newslettr2 site is a curatable RSS / social media archive, so it is easier to write these dispatches later (or to have the robots do so). Will it happen? Only time can tell.

Headline stories not at a point of coverage:

• conflict in Ukraine

• elections in Italy

• energy shortages in Europe

and now, the rest of the Tisatsar’s News:

Haiti in Crisis: Much like the chaos in Kazakhstan in January and in Sri Lanka in July, the proximate cause: an increase in energy prices. Other causes include centuries of troubled governance, and the assassination of Prime Minister Jovenel Moïse last year.

News coverage of the situation on the ground is minimal, and is likely to remain minimal after two journalists were murdered last week:

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (13 Sept. 2022) -- Two Haitian reporters were fatally shot and their bodies set on fire while reporting in a slum controlled by gangs in the capital, the second such killing this year, according to a journalists' association.

Commentary on Twitter (and the New York Post) is biased. And the Tisatsar Newslettr does not have a local correspondent in Haiti. So further news will have to wait.

Rail Workers Not on Strike: Is it news when something bad doesn’t happen? Hundreds, possibly millions of bad things don’t happen every single day.

In this case, it is news. A last-minute deal brokered by the Biden administration prevented a railroad workers strike2 that could have been catastrophic to the nation's supply chains. (WaPo)

Stop Hitting Yourself: The water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi appears to be ameliorated, at least in the short-term. Water pressure is back, and after several weeks the boil-water order has been lifted. However, it is universally acknowledged that the systemic problems with the infrastructure remain, and there is a risk of future outages. One thing unlikely to solve that: more lawyers.

(MSNBC, Sept. 20) A group of Jackson, Mississippi, residents filed a class-action lawsuit Friday over the water crisis that left over 150,000 people in the city without access to clean running water. The suit is the first federal action that seeks class-action status to pursue damages "against various government and private engineering defendants" for the "neglect, mismanagement, and maintenance failures" that led to a complete shutdown of Jackson's water system last month, according to a news release.

The problem with such a lawsuit is that it doesn’t actually do anything. The residents of Jackson MS are effectively suing themselves. Any damages will come out of their own tax funds, and be taken away from the efforts to fix the problem.

A Cursory Look at the Gender Wars: As a child, I would look at certain societal arcs in history and ask why they didn’t happen faster. In my elder years, I still do not have straightforward answers, but it is clear that these narratives progress at their own pace, and there is no point trying to speed them along.

In short: there are biological differences between men and women, but it is going to be unpopular to admit that in public for the next five years.

A Less-than-Cursory Look at Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida, performing cheap tricks for the chorus by flying migrants from Texas to Massachusetts: Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. (Fox News)

The Mirror Doth Scorn the Vampire: when the Tisatsar Newslettr mentions “anal beads”, it is a reflection of those other outlets that do so. Most recently, it was CBS Sports, with a headline of “Chess sex toy cheating scandal explained: World No. 1 Magnus Carlsen, Hans Niemann in wild sports controversy”. But what is their excuse?

Contra Gary Marcus on AI: without access to many of the current generation of AI tools, the Tisatsar Newslettr is relying on other people to do the assessments. One of the worst prognosticators today on this front is Gary Marcus. Erik Hoel (recent winner of the ACX book review contest) thoroughly explains the evidence that Marcus is wrong:

The Intrinsic Perspective

AI's critics merely muddy the waters

The future is already here, and becoming more evenly distributed every day. Just back in 2006, when I first went off to college, the field of AI was, academically, considered a joke. And some people, somehow, still see it this way, even as almost every day new AIs are released that cost millions …

Read more

4 years ago · 24 likes · 23 comments · Erik Hoel

The term “Retirement” polls better: Google Surveys (formerly Google Consumer Surveys) is being sent to pasture.

As the product produced very minimal revenue, but had the potential to generate extremely negative news stories, this must be considered a sound business decision.

Quick Book Review — “Don’t Tell Me I Can’t”: Tragedies cause people to say strange things. So when an article in the Deseret News told a tall-tale about a dead 14-year-old boy who wrote an autobiography under the pen-name Cole Summers, the Tisatsar Newslettr felt compelled to investigate that book further.

• The book, titled “Don’t Tell Me I Can’t”, was ghostwritten, and this is openly acknowledged in the book.

• Despite the phrasing in the book, a nine-year old does not buy a property as a birthday present to himself. There is obviously a wealthy benefactor paying for the property.

• The Deseret News article is a fair summary of the book. Unfortunately, the story is presented as if their reporters fact-checked it, although they clearly did not.

• If this were a high-school student’s writing project for an English class, I would give it a good grade. On the higher threshold of “would I recommend the Tisatsar Newslettr’s readers buy the book”, the answer is “no”.

• The tragic conclusion of the story is that unschooling is harmful. You don’t know what you don’t know3. Cole Summers didn’t know how to swim, and he didn’t know to wear a lifejacket in a kayak. And thus, he died.

the Last Funeral of the Twentieth Century

A year ago, I asked when the long twentieth century4 came to an end.

Perhaps it is this month that the final chapter of the twentieth century is written: the death5 and funeral of HRH Elizabeth II. A few historical figures6 still survive as relics of the 20th century, but their funerals shall be part of the 21st century.

There was an extreme reaction to her death. In London, the Queue for mourners stretched five miles (and 12 hours) in length. On Twitter, everything from the death of Alan Turing to the Biafra War was blamed on her. Both of those events seem like ancient history but happened under her reign; apparently 70 years ago is ancient7 history these days.

No figure has had such a gap between “authority” and “discretionary power” as Elizabeth the Great8. As a matter of law, she held absolute temporal and spiritual power in the United Kingdom and dozens of other countries around the world. As a matter of practice, she was bound to act according to the advice of her governmental ministers in all matters. And her role as leader of the Church of England never left the realm of the ceremonial.

The initial plan was for the theme to be disagreement. But, that theme was too unpleasant to write it out in full. So, we replaced it with replacement. Now we shall see which theme wins out.

and now, the Tisatsar’s News.

First in War, First in Peace, Last in the American League: Major League Baseball continues its long-running attack on the two-league system.

With the Designated Hitter now being endemic in both leagues, this was the logical next step. At this rate, the Newslettr would not be surprised to see the current leagues replaced by an Eastern Conference and Western Conference by the end of the decade.

A New Leader: the saga of replacing Boris Johnson has come to an end. Liz Truss won the secret ballot of Conservative Party members, and was formally named PM by the Queen this1 Tuesday.

No New Constitution: a proposed new constitution in Chile was rejected in a nationwide referendum this Sunday. the Newslettr has not found an official English-language translation, but machine translation of the Wikisource version should suffice.

The constitution was largely described as excessive, extremely leftist, and nigh-contradictory. It presumably would have been the first national constitution with a right to “protection and promotion of data security”.

Two beginning, one ending: we bid farewell2 to Real Life magazine. Perhaps there will be a “best of” retrospective here in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, two eminant personalities in the NFT space are starting newsletters. One, Molly White, is at her own domain. The other, Carly Reilly, is here on Substack, and gets an interstitial.

Overpriced JPEGs

Overpriced JPEGs

By Carly Reilly 🧢

Water Shortages Considered Harmful: The city of Jackson, MS suffered a complete failure of its water system for around a week. The reasons3 include …

no, no. cut4.

If the news is so unpleasant, why do we even read it?

• To change what will happen next.

• To prepare for what will happen next.

• Out of a misguided expectation that it might get less unpleasant.

• Masochism and self-loathing.

• Schadenfreude and revenge.

• Because not reading it is even worse.

• … to hopefully learn something from others’ mistakes

Joe Biden gave a speech on September 1. I didn’t watch, but I read the press clippings.5

Why do dynasties fall? Over the course of generations, they evolve from long-term thinking to short-term thinking. Then, they cease to think at all, and they are swallowed up by other forces.

Astral Codex Ten

Your Book Review: 1587, A Year Of No Significance

Read more

4 years ago · 145 likes · 207 comments · Scott Alexander

There is a sense that the Democrats are branding themselves as the anti-fascist6 party to win the election this November. And, as part of their efforts to be as anti-fascist as possible, they are working to make the Republican Party (their opponent at the ballot box) appear as fascist as possible.

And the best way to make the Republicans appear fascist is to encourage them to be more fascist.

For the goal of “preventing fascism”, this is completely backwards7. But for the goal of “winning the next8 election”, it will probably work out fine.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the Western Alliance is attempting to shut off the energy flow in order to win the war on9 Russia.

According to CNN (September 2):

The West's biggest economies on Friday agreed to impose a price cap on Russian oil in an attempt to reduce Moscow's ability to fund its war in Ukraine without further stoking global inflation.

Finance ministers from the G7 group of countries — the United States, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom — said they would ban the provision of "services which enable maritime transportation of Russian-origin crude oil and petroleum products globally" above the price cap. That could block insurance cover or finance for oil shipments.

Meanwhile, Russia is also trying to shut off the energy flow. According to CNN (September 2):

Russia won't immediately resume exports of natural gas to Europe through its Nord Stream 1 pipeline, worsening a shortage that threatens to tip the continent into an energy crisis this winter.

On Friday, Russian state energy giant Gazprom said it would not resume flows through the pipeline on Saturday as planned because it had detected an oil leak at its Portovaya compressor station. The pipeline has been shut since Wednesday for maintenance.

It didn't give a timeline of when exports might resume.

There is a tension between “reporting” and “advocacy”. Very roughly, to accurately report on an issue, one must give up hope of changing the outcome.

On the situation of energy supplies in Europe, the Newslettr has thoroughly given up on advocacy.

And there is no point in reporting on things before they happen. So we await the news.

So far, the Newslettr is doing better at the “asking questions” part of the news business.

This tisatsar, we are doubling down on our strengths. Questions only1 this time in the Tisatsar’s News.

but first, a clerical note: the Newslettr is adopting “sections”. the Tisatsar’s News is its own section, and you are all subscribed to it. The “Esoterica” section is also a default subsciption, and discusses magick, theology, and timetravel. The third new section: “Hot Takes”. Nobody is subscribed to that one. Caveat lector.

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Why hasn’t the United Nations recognized the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan? The situation on the ground is clear. One year after the collapse of the Ghani regime, the Taliban remain as the government of Afghanistan. However, for a variety of reasons, most of the world’s powers remain politically opposed to it.

Nevertheless, it is indisputed that the Taliban are the current government. Would the United Nations admit their representative? Will the Taliban send one?

Who are the candidates for President of Kenya? An election was recently held in Kenya. According to al-Jazeera, William Ruto has been declared the winner over Raila Odinga. Odinga is supposedly challenging the results, as he did in the previous election, and the election before that.

Wikipedia, while detailing several “scandals” involving Ruto, says approximately nothing about his political views. Neither does it discuss those of his political party, the United Democratic Alliance. What are those views? (remember folks, questions only today)

What is the fuel situation in Sri Lanka? News coverage of shortages and long queues appears to have stopped. Does this mean that the shortages have stopped? Or, more modestly, that the rationing system is successfully mitigating the crisis?

As far as protests are concerned, it seems they have mostly died out as well. There is now a name and a face to associate with the protestors: a recently-arrested (and released) Teacher’s Union bureaucrat named Joseph Stalin2.

Meanwhile, will the situation get worse as a result of energy demands in Europe?

Why don’t they turn the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant off? There continues to be discussion about the risks of an accident3 at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. According to American state media, only two of the six reactors were operating as-of mid July. But if we want to make sure there isn’t a nuclear disaster, shouldn’t all of the reactors be disabled?

Does the Rushdie attack make Iran a “state sponsor of terrorism”? Over 30 years after the infamous fatwa was issued against author Salman Rushdie by the Ayatollah Khomenei, he was attacked on-stage at an event in upstate New York.4

Was the attack "terrorism"? And would the current government of Iran thus be considered a sponsor of terrorism? Or, is this a sui generis historical incident that doesn’t reflect on current or future behavior?

Is “an eye for an eye” appropriate punishment? While Rushdie will survive, initial reports suggested he might lose an eye from the attack. If he did, would it be reasonable to gouge out one of his attacker’s eyes?

Of course, this will not happen; it would violate both the “ex post facto” and the “cruel and unusual punishment” clauses of the Constitution to gouge one of the attacker’s eyes5 out. But, in a different legal regime, would it be appropriate?

Should bad policy be illegal? In Washington DC, the political discourse continues to consider the topic of “excessive education requirements for employment”.

Apparently, the court applied a “rational basis” test to dismiss the suit. What is the difference between “is this good policy” and “is this a policy that can be legally made”? And does the “rational basis” test attempt to determine one of them?

Is the Prime Minister of Finland taking party drugs6? According to the BBC, after a leaked7 video showed Ms. Marin partying, questions are being raised, and the opposition has requesed she take a drug test. Would it be a privacy violation to require her to take a drug test?

How well does DALL-E 2 work? DALL-E 2 is a computer system that generates images from text prompts.

We are currently on the waitlist. We note also a competitor, Stability AI, which TechCrunch describes as having a “lack of safeguards compared to systems like DALL-E 2 [that] poses tricky ethical questions”. We are also on their waitlist.

What is happening with Birdwatch? Our coverage of Birdwatch continues.

(( the planned DALL-E prompt: A condor, sailing majestically across the Pacific Ocean. The condor is alone. The condor has a dream, represented as a thought bubble. The thought bubble shows all the bird-brains back at corporate. ))

One flaw in Birdwatch is becoming apparent. People will view Twitter as the authority8 for whatever Birdwatch says.

It is unclear how succesfully people can distinguish between "proposed Birdwatch comments" and "approved Birdwatch comments".

It is also unclear how Twitter can expect "volunteer labor" to be able to power the feature.

There are also still “quality issues”:

The “additional context” here isn’t quite gibberish, but it misses the point: month-over-month inflation was 0% but the year-over-year inflation9 is stil high.

Regardless: Twitter is not going to be able to launch this feature without assuming some level of editorial control over it.

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If you want to place bets (or give advice in the form of a bet) on the technical details, the books are open at Manifold Markets.

But there has been too much news to wait another tisatsar2. So now, presumably for the last time on Substack, the tisatsar’s news.

Roe v. Wade overturned: In a 5.5-3.5 decision3 [PDF], the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Roe v. Wade. Chief Justice John Roberts was unable to get support for a compromise outcome that would allow 15-week abortion bans without explicitly overturning Roe v. Wade.

The response has been muted4 so far. Joe Biden has been demonstrating losing with grace5 on the topic. Elizabeth Warren did not; issuing a statement calling for a “public health emergency” that appears to have no basis in law or reason.

The ultimate test of public opinion will be at the ballot-box in November.

Shinzo Abe assassinated: tragedy in Japan, as former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated by a man with an improvized firearm. The motivation for the attack was not immediately clear6.

the War in Ukraine continues: Russia continues to achieve its objectives in Ukraine, albeit slower and more painfully than experts predicted. The best day-by-day coverage the Newslettr is aware of comes from Markos Moulitsas7 of Daily Kos. For example, note the June 25 and July 8 updates.

the Johnson-Pincher scandal: the always-controversial Boris Johnson has resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The straw that broke the camel’s back: a story that must be called the Johnson-Pincher scandal. Recently, Mr. Johnson appointed one Chris Pincher MP to a government position.

On June 30, Mr. Pincher resigned from his position after having allegedly groped two men at a nightclub while drunk. Mr. Johnson resigned as PM a week later. Up next, a crowded field of at least 10 Conservative MPs will be narrowed down to two before the end of the month. the Newslettr plans to not cover this further until one of them actually wins.

Chaos in Sri Lanka: the government in Sri Lanka has resigned, or at least promised to resign. The cause of the crisis: governmental corruption, fuel shortages, food shortages, and money shortages.

The situation is still so unclear8 that rather than run up our incorrect-prediction count, we simply will wait until next tisatsar to report more news. In particular, it is unclear whether the announced resignations will help anything.

Elon Musk Abandons Twitter Purchase: the Newslettr was nearly certain Mr. Musk would buy Twitter, especially given he would only need to put up a fraction of the necessary cash. Pundits were nearly certain he would not, and the stock price reflected that.

Over the weekend, the pundits were proven right. At least for now. the Newslettr still thinks there may be a new deal for Twitter before next Monday.

One thing we do not want to see is drawn-out litigation. However, as all the parties involved seem most interested in maximizing the column-inches used by coverage of the deal, we are resigned to watching several more months of pointless drama.

As far as our second thesis, that the half-a-dozen features Twitter is beta-testing might quickly improve both revenue and the user experience … clearly they are less interested in “moving fast” than they would have been ten years ago. Certainly launching unmentioning will not move the earnings needle, but it is one of the dozen-or-so user-safety features that should be launched anyway.

A Disaster This Big Can’t Be Kept Secret: no public comment at this time.

the Handover at 25: 1 Jul 2022 marked 25 years since sovereignty over Hong Kong was returned to the government of China, with 50 years of “one country two systems” guaranteed by treaty. The BBC has more.

Bongbong Marcos inaugurated: the start of the BBM presidency in the Philippines has been largely uneventful. Rappler has a summary of the first week, ending in the inauspicious note of Mr. Marcos testing positive for COVID.

I am giving it one last chance … no, no, no, three last chances1. Largely because that gives the Newslettr an excuse to use the word antepenultimate.

The theme for the week is: reasons to become a super villain. No, it wasn’t my first choice of theme either. But the news this week borders on apocalyptic.

and now, the week’s news.

Feeding our Children: the infamous supply chain issues2 plaguing America have reached the baby formula market. The greatest country on Earth is unable to feed its children. Or at least it is having some difficulty. the Newslettr is going to wait until somebody important asks for our advice3 before giving it in any detail.

Children and a handgun-related incident: When we have nothing to add, we just4 quote NPR:

A reported 21 people were killed in an attack by a lone gunman at an elementary school in the small town of Uvalde, Texas. At least 19 students and two adults were among the casualties. The gunman was killed by police, according to local law enforcement officials.

No news from Twitter: the Twitter annual shareholder meeting was almost entirely without drama, according to media reports. the Newslettr submitted some questions, but we don’t think they were answered. the Newslettr also planned to watch live, but due to time-zone issues5 completely missed the meeting.

Climate nonsense: the Newslettr tries to avoid pointing out that carbon credits are more about accounting fraud than combating climate change. But for the insufficiently-disgraced Adam Neumann, carbon credits are one of the two buzzwords needed to raise millions from a16z. The other buzzword, of course: “blockchain”.

The dreaded lurgi: Talk continues of a monkeypox outbreak. Preliminary indications suggest this is more likely to be the equivalent of Zika than COVID: quarantines and mass casualties are unlikely.

Threat of famine: the Newslettr has gotten a sense from the media that there is a substantial risk of famine in the next two years. Apart from the War in Ukraine, there is no single dramatic concern, just a lot of small concerns. While we struggle to imagine the tragedies and incompetence that would be necessary to cause such an event, we have learned over the past few years that the incompetence of bureaucracies routinely exceeds our imagination.

Unnecessary censorship: the once-prestigious Nebula Awards have descended into farce. This week: “canceling” fantasy writer Mercedes Lackey for daring to use the phrase colored person6. The circular firing squad just got smaller …

Henry Kissinger is not yet dead: At Davos this week, a 99-year-old Henry Kissinger talked about the situation in Ukraine. The Twitterati, as a matter of reflex, hate Kissinger and everything he stands for. And here … he stands for “it is insanity to expect this war to end with Ukraine controlling the Crimea peninsula”.

The Gaping News Hole: CNN continues to blur the line between “news” and “advertising”. On Monday, a news story billed as Exclusive turned out to be an ad for an Arby’s hamburger. Perhaps it is one of those situations where a hired PR consultant writes a piece for a lazy reporter, who then runs it without the “advertising” tag. If you’re not familiar with this practice, (P. Graham, 2005) has more.

A marketing failure: the Newslettr attended VeeCon in Minneapolis this last weekend. Our mood for the event was gallows humor; we watched the crowds and saw a wake for the dying madness of the NFT bubble. Some of our thoughts are in the open thread.

And as far as marketing: despite talking about the Newslettr all weekend, we did not get a single new subscriber. It would seem “NFTs are dying” isn’t a popular take at an NFT conference.

Cut down every law in California: the “won’t somebody think of the children” lobby has joined forces with the anti-tech-company lobby in California. According to the one article we could find7:

California could soon hold social media companies responsible for harming children who have become addicted to their products, permitting parents to sue platforms like Instagram and TikTok for up to $25,000 per violation under a bill that passed the state Assembly on Monday.

The bill is AB 2408. In this context, both “addicted” and “harm” are weasel-words: they are specifically vague to allow people to harass rich corporations the government doesn’t like. The right-to-private-action, while not as egregiously disgusting as the Texas abortion legislation, once again appears to encourage harassment rather than justice.

And, presumably, any *effective* method of preventing persons under 18 from using an internet service would also be illegal …

One of your holiday games: There is a certain sense where people can confuse the historical record by giving unusual or stupid names to things. A more mild example applies in horse racing. A few years ago, it was Cloud Computing. At the Derby this year, it was Rich Strike. And last weekend, it was Early Voting that won the Preakness.

the Newslettr has some guesses as-to what they will think of next, but we don’t want to give them any more ideas …

Another word for nothing left to lose: In the year 2022, there is apparently exactly one excuse to fire a tenured professor: allegations of sexual misconduct. At Princeton, a certain Mr. Katz was recently fired on this rationale. The claimed issue: fraternization8, approximately 15 years ago. The actual issue: political opinions, of some sort. Mr. Katz’s take9 is in the Wall Street Journal.

Even in Australia: well, actually … apparently the news in Australia isn’t quite so bad this week.

The recent Australian election saw the defeat of the pugnacious Scott Morrison, and the triumph of “teal10 independents” in multiple seats. We are waiting for the election results to be finalized (and a few more Australian journalists to publish) before commenting in any depth.

As far as Prime Minister11 Anthony Albanese: we assume he is a bureaucratic type, who can be counted on to support the Labor Party platform and to do little else. After our research on Bongbong Marcos is complete, we hope to look into Mr. Albanese in more detail.

Correction, a less interactive format this week. (Commentator holds up a sign saying: that was a joke2) (( a second commentator whispers “we apologize for the time zones” ))

and now, a collection of letters, from a variety of individuals, from all walks of life, which may or may not include, the week’s news:

A note from an astrologer:

There is no news again today.

There was some news on Sunday night. There was an eclipse in the sky.

… a lunar eclipse. Neil DeGrasse Tyson says lunar eclipses are canceled.

These children these days say that something called a cell phone exists. I just don’t believe them. It is the devil’s heresy.

我觉得，听的很好。我们没有手机。谁在外边？

A note from a Spy:

the Newslettr is working on a new product: an NFT.

This one does not use a blockchain. Rather, it uses seventy-four3 rare medals I inherited recently.

Hopefully there will be news by the end of June.

as an Appraiser4, the Newslettr values the physical set at around $500. If you have one and want to sell it, contact our auctions agent, Mr. Alan Lee, at alanlee50309@gmail.com .

A note from a censor:

Thirty-three divided by two is seven.

Not very good at math. Probably why they censor his arithmetic.

a note from a Weatherman:

As a reminder, for interaction, we note the Comments Section for this week’s newslettr on manifold.markets.

Three entries in the forecasts this week.

• At Manifold Markets, we note that it is extremely5 likely6 that Ukraine will attend the UN General Assembly in September.

• At Manifold Markets, some humor about this Twitter deal. I think the translation is “you kids get off of my lawn”, which has an effect that gets lost in translation …

• At Manifold Markets, a question about that country whose capital is Ankara.

a note from a Rabbinic Scholar:

I plan to do a re-approach to the Pauline epistles. Ideally as a “fusion” gospel of three separate English translations: the KJV, the NIV, and the EF7 version.

In general, we will take the KJV and NIV in a paired reading. For a simple dispute, we can consult the original Greek text.

the Newslettr prefers to consult … « we apologize again. apparently you had to be there »

a note from a Strange Quark:

something about three rotations: ortho, meta, and hyper.

and they do tests.

a Test: « a technical note: we are unable to in-line include audio-recordings in the Newslettr at this time. It will probably be more efficient to record them ourselves on a new platform. » we asked one of the participants how ta felt about the test. they enjoyed it.

except for the British. if you are British, a Test is five days of cricket.

the Show8 awaits ...

a note from a Bird Watcher:

the Birdwatcher left. Probably to greener pastures. In the south, for the winter. Maybe Carbondale will be livable.

It is now May, and the birds have arrived at the Hunting Lodge.

Unfortunately, this is our last year at the Lodge. I need to move. There is a cat in my backyard. It is one of the neighbors’, and has learned to climb the fence.

a note from LONDON:

BBC Radio Four, overnight coverage 17 May 2022, a morality play9. It is about a man (Tom) who robbed a bank10. He then took cocaine11 and moved to San Francisco, where he couldn’t afford cocaine. He apologizes for having lived a selfish lifestyle. Eventually, the Reality of the Law catches up to him. To Be Continued

and now, another voice from the wire:

In 1986, the 20-year presidency of Ferdinand Marcos came to an end. Now, it is his son, Bongbong12 Marcos, who has taken power. He has won a six-year term. His vice president, the daughter of outgoing president Duterte.

Wikipedia’s take on the measure:

Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. (English: /ˈmɑːrkɔːs/ MAR-kawss, Tagalog: [ˈmaɾkɔs]; born September 13, 1957), commonly referred to as Bongbong Marcos or BBM, is a Filipino politician who is the presumptive president-elect of the Philippines. He previously served as a senator from 2010 to 2016. He is the second child and only son of former president, dictator and kleptocrat Ferdinand Marcos Sr. and former first lady and convicted criminal Imelda Romualdez Marcos."

That seems to be a … gratuitous description of Mr. Marcos’ mother.

The Encyclopedia Foundation hopes to present a de novo article on the man later this year.

When the American government tells a journalist to do something, the journalists have a laugh about it at the bar1.

When the British government tells a journalist to do something, the journalists also have a laugh about it at the bar.

The difference is, in Britain, the journalists will actually do exactly what the government demands before they go to the bar.

They don’t have the First Amendment in Britain, after all.

And in Canada, they technically do have a First Amendment - but my sources say the first amendment there reads (roughly) “Manitoba is part of Canada”. Of course, the recent protesters in Ottawa apparently didn’t appreciate this distinction (ref CBC).

To make a long story short, there is no column this week2, just a syndicated joke. But first, the week’s news:

22222222: well, we got 3/4ths of the way there on Tuesday. In commemoration of 2022/02/22, all subscriptions are half price through the end of the month. Get twice as much “ineffable satisfaction of paying for quality content” for your dollar - act now!

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Broyles Brouhaha: Oklahoma political candidate3 Abby Broyles has recently had a scandal for the ages. We note the Washington Post’s coverage of her “apology”.

In short, the 32-year old woman attended a sleepover with a group of pre-teens, mixed wine with sleeping medications, called one of the pre-teens a “Hispanic fucker”, and vomited on the shoes.

Perhaps it is not surprising that she did not have enough self-awareness to withdraw4 from her current campaign.

Amazing Grace: The magician known as The Amazing Johnathan died this week. “Not like we didn’t have warning” is an understatement — a documentary about his life and terminal illness came out a few years ago. AVClub has more on his life.

No News From Donetsk #fogofwar: Russia made the expected announcement about the “independence” of the governments in Donetsk and Luhansk on Monday. The Western establishment immediately declared that Russia had invaded Ukraine. However, I am not convinced that anything has actually happened (yet).

Yes, there are probably Russian troops in Donetsk — but there were irregular Russian troops in Donetsk last week, and last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.

On the other hand, it appears Putin’s calculations on timing may have been “2/22/2022 is an auspicious day for action”. He apparently telegraphed his intentions, according to a report in the Telegraph, with a certain Vladimir Zhirinovsky announcing a February 22nd date in December 2021.

In any event, at some point in the next 3 months, we will see a forcing of the issue of whether Donetsk and Luhansk end at the armistice line, or the pre-2014 provincial border. It may not happen until May; it could also already be happening. Time will tell.

Party Political Broadcast: After declining to have any agenda other than “we support Donald Trump” and “we support the Republican Party agenda” in 2020, the GOP is likely to have an agenda in the 2022 elections. Rick Scott has a plan entitled “Rescue America”. The pundits hate5 it — which probably means it’s not that bad. On the other hand, there are a few very silly points in there. the Newslettr will give him at least a week to revise and extend his remarks before we analyze them in any detail.

Tweet of the Week: Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley visits a local ice cream shop.

Hark! I hear the cannon roar!

We quote the great Robert De Niro, as quoted in Mother Jones, as quoted in Playboy Magazine. (Well, we did quote him, but if you’re not an email subscriber, you will have to click the link to read the joke.)